Exit polls released on Wednesday have projected a significant victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and suggested an edge for the party over the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. Simultaneously, these projections indicate a return to power for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala after a decade in opposition. The AINRC-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is also forecast to retain power in Puducherry.
The projections from various pollsters paint a detailed picture of the anticipated electoral outcomes. In Assam, Axis My India has predicted a sweeping win for the BJP and its allies, forecasting between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-seat assembly, while the Congress and its partners are expected to secure 24 to 36 seats. People’s Pulse has offered a similar outlook, predicting 68 to 72 seats for the NDA and 22 to 26 seats for the Congress-led alliance. Matrize’s forecast aligns, suggesting the NDA could win 85 to 95 seats, with the Congress and its allies taking 25 to 32 seats. The majority mark in the Assam assembly stands at 64 seats.
Information reaching TahirRihat.com suggests that the electoral landscape in Kerala is also leaning towards a significant shift. Axis My India’s exit poll for Kerala anticipates the UDF securing 78 to 90 seats, leaving the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) with 49 to 62 seats, and the NDA with a minimal 0 to 3 seats. People’s Pulse has projected a slightly tighter race, with the UDF expected to win 75 to 85 seats, the LDF 55 to 65 seats, and the NDA 0 to 3 seats. Matrize’s forecast places the UDF in a leading position with 70 to 75 seats, the LDF with 60 to 65 seats, and the NDA with 3 to 5 seats. The Kerala Assembly comprises 140 seats, requiring 71 for a majority.
The contest in West Bengal appears to be the most closely watched, with exit polls offering divergent predictions. People’s Pulse has predicted a strong performance for the ruling TMC, projecting 177 to 187 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure 95 to 110 seats. The Left Front and Congress are forecast to win minimal seats. However, Matrize’s poll suggests a potential edge for the BJP, forecasting 146 to 161 seats for the party and 125 to 140 seats for the TMC. P-Marq’s prediction leans even more favorably towards the BJP, with an estimated 150 to 175 seats compared to 118 to 138 for the TMC. The West Bengal Assembly has 294 seats, with 148 needed for a majority.
In Tamil Nadu, the exit polls consistently point towards a victory for the DMK-led alliance. People’s Pulse has predicted 125 to 145 seats for the DMK alliance, with the AIADMK-BJP alliance expected to secure 65 to 80 seats, and the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) receiving 18 to 24 seats. Matrize’s forecast is also favorable to the DMK-Congress combine, predicting 122 to 132 seats, while the NDA is projected to win 87 to 100 seats, and TVK 10 to 12 seats. The Tamil Nadu Assembly has 234 seats, with a majority requiring 118 seats.
The union territory of Puducherry is also projected to see the AINRC-led NDA government return to power. Axis My India has predicted 16 to 20 seats for the NDA, with the DMK-Congress alliance expected to win 6 to 8 seats. The TVK is anticipated to secure 2 to 4 seats in the 30-seat assembly.
The counting of votes for all five assemblies – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, and Assam – is scheduled for May 4. Polling in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu was conducted in a single phase. West Bengal, however, saw a more extended electoral process, with polling spread across two phases on April 23 and April 29.
Earlier polling phases saw significant voter engagement. On April 9, Assam and Puducherry recorded their highest-ever voter turnout percentages, with 85.38 percent and 89.83 percent respectively. Tamil Nadu, which went to the polls on April 23 alongside the first phase in West Bengal, achieved its highest-ever voter turnout in Assembly polls since independence, recording 84.69 percent. The first phase of polling in West Bengal on April 23 also set a record with a voter turnout of 91.78 percent.
The electoral battles were characterized by key political narratives. The BJP aimed to secure a second consecutive term in Assam and Puducherry, where it currently governs in an alliance with the All India N R Congress. Conversely, the Congress sought to unseat the BJP in these regions. In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF was striving to replace the incumbent LDF government. Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance was focused on retaining power against challenges from the AIADMK-BJP coalition and the newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by actor-turned-politician Vijay. In West Bengal, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC was working to maintain its hold on power against a strong challenge from the BJP.
It is important to note that exit polls have historically presented a mixed record, with some instances of significant deviations from the final results in past elections. The accuracy of these projections will become clear on May 4 when the official vote counts are announced.
Tahir Rihat (also known as Tahir Bilal) is an independent journalist, activist, and digital media professional from the Chenab Valley of Jammu and Kashmir, India. He is best known for his work as the Online Editor at The Chenab Times.