In a notable departure from the playbook of former U.S. President Donald Trump, nationalist leaders in Serbia and Hungary have opted for a more conventional approach to electoral outcomes, eschewing the rhetoric of widespread fraud and election denial that has characterized some political movements globally. This decision by figures like Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán signals a strategic choice to maintain a degree of institutional stability, even as they champion nationalistic agendas.
The divergence is particularly striking given the shared ideological leanings and the often-aligned rhetoric between these leaders and Mr. Trump on issues of sovereignty, immigration, and cultural identity. However, when it comes to challenging the legitimacy of their own electoral processes, Vučić and Orbán have, at least publicly, chosen a path of orderly retreat rather than protracted denial. Information reaching Tahir Rihat suggests that this approach is a calculated move to consolidate power and avoid alienating a broader spectrum of the electorate, as well as international partners.
President Vučić, who has faced accusations of authoritarian tendencies and media control, did not employ the extensive election denial tactics seen in the United States following the 2020 presidential election. Instead, his party secured a decisive victory in the Serbian general election held in April 2022. While opposition parties did raise concerns about irregularities and called for a rerun in some municipalities, the overall narrative from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party did not involve a wholesale rejection of the election’s validity. This contrasts sharply with the sustained efforts by Mr. Trump and his allies to overturn the results of the 2020 U.S. election, which involved numerous legal challenges and public pronouncements of a stolen election.
Similarly, Prime Minister Orbán, whose Fidesz party has dominated Hungarian politics for over a decade, also saw his party win a supermajority in the April 2022 parliamentary elections. While international observers and domestic opposition groups have frequently raised concerns about the fairness of the electoral playing field in Hungary, including media bias and the use of state resources, Orbán has not engaged in the kind of systematic denial of election results that Mr. Trump has. His strategy has been more focused on shaping the political landscape to his party’s advantage over time, rather than contesting the fundamental legitimacy of individual election outcomes after they have been certified.
The decision by these leaders to avoid the Trumpian election denial playbook is multifaceted. One key factor is the different political and legal systems in place. Serbia and Hungary, while having their own challenges with democratic norms, generally operate within established legal frameworks for election disputes and recounts. The judiciary and electoral commissions, despite potential criticisms, have not been subjected to the same level of direct pressure or delegitimization as seen in the U.S. context. Furthermore, the political cultures in these Balkan and Central European nations may be less receptive to the kind of prolonged, disruptive challenges to electoral integrity that have become a feature of American politics.
Another consideration is the strategic calculation of these nationalist leaders. For Orbán, maintaining a degree of international legitimacy, particularly within the European Union, is crucial for Hungary’s economic and political standing. While he has often clashed with Brussels on issues of rule of law and democratic standards, a full-blown embrace of election denial could further isolate Hungary and jeopardize its access to EU funds. Similarly, Vučić, while projecting an image of strong leadership, also needs to navigate Serbia’s aspirations for EU membership and maintain relationships with Western partners. The perception of a stable, if illiberal, democracy can be more advantageous than being seen as a state that fundamentally rejects democratic processes.
The nationalist appeal of both Orbán and Vučić is built on a foundation of national pride, cultural preservation, and a skepticism of external influences, including what they often portray as liberal globalist agendas. However, their approach to elections suggests that they understand the importance of maintaining a veneer of democratic legitimacy, even if the substance of that democracy is debated. By accepting the certified results, they can claim a mandate from the people while continuing to exert control through other means, such as media influence, patronage networks, and the manipulation of state institutions. This allows them to consolidate power without facing the potentially destabilizing consequences of widespread accusations of electoral fraud, which could invite greater international scrutiny and domestic unrest.
The contrast with the United States is stark. In the U.S., the rhetoric of election denial has become deeply entrenched within a significant segment of the Republican Party, fueled by Mr. Trump’s persistent claims of a rigged election in 2020. This has led to ongoing political polarization, challenges to democratic institutions, and a questioning of electoral processes at various levels. The leaders in Serbia and Hungary, by contrast, appear to have recognized that while challenging the status quo and advocating for national interests, outright rejection of election outcomes could be counterproductive to their long-term goals of maintaining power and influence within their respective national and international contexts.
The implications of this divergence are significant for understanding the global landscape of democratic governance and the evolution of nationalist movements. While many leaders globally have adopted populist and nationalist rhetoric, the specific tactics employed can vary widely. The choice made by Vučić and Orbán suggests that in certain contexts, a more pragmatic approach to electoral politics, even within an illiberal framework, can be more effective than a direct confrontation with the established electoral system. This allows them to project an image of strength and popular support while avoiding the potentially corrosive effects of widespread election denial on institutional trust and international relations.
As per information available with Tahir Rihat, the leaders’ decisions are not necessarily indicative of a commitment to liberal democratic principles, but rather a strategic adaptation to their specific political environments. They have found ways to maintain their grip on power and advance their nationalistic agendas without resorting to the wholesale rejection of election results, a tactic that has proven divisive and damaging in other democratic systems. This nuanced approach allows them to benefit from the legitimacy conferred by electoral victories, however contested, while continuing to shape the political discourse and institutions to their advantage.
The Serbian and Hungarian leaders’ decision to refrain from widespread election denial can be seen as a pragmatic choice to preserve a degree of institutional credibility and avoid the potential fallout of challenging electoral outcomes directly. This approach allows them to maintain their nationalist platforms while navigating the complexities of domestic politics and international relations, demonstrating a different path for illiberal leaders seeking to consolidate power.
Tahir Rihat (also known as Tahir Bilal) is an independent journalist, activist, and digital media professional from the Chenab Valley of Jammu and Kashmir, India. He is best known for his work as the Online Editor at The Chenab Times.
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