A substantial portion of the proposed Manali-Leh railway line, a critical strategic infrastructure project in the Indian Himalayas, is situated in areas prone to moderate to high natural hazards. A recent study has highlighted that nearly 60% of the 275-kilometer route falls within these risk zones, underscoring the urgent need for extensive geotechnical and cryospheric investigations to mitigate potential climate-induced disasters.
The comprehensive study, conducted by researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi, and published in the peer-reviewed journal Geodesy and Geodynamics, analyzed a 20-kilometer-wide corridor along the proposed rail link. Information reaching Tahir Rihat suggests that 7.96% of this area is classified as a very high susceptibility zone, 20.28% as a high susceptibility zone, and 29.32% as a moderate susceptibility zone. Conversely, 42.44% of the area is deemed to be in low and very low susceptibility zones. The researchers emphasized that a significant segment of the railway line will traverse regions with a considerable risk profile, necessitating detailed investigations before construction can commence.
Several key stations along the proposed route have been identified as being located within high susceptibility zones. These include Chhuchot, Phe Yard, Debring, She Road, and Darcha. The region, characterized by its complex geological terrain and frequent extreme climatic events, is particularly vulnerable to a range of cryospheric hazards. These hazards encompass landslides triggered by permafrost thaw, avalanches, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The construction of the railway line in permafrost regions poses an additional challenge, as it can lead to ground instability and subsequent damage to infrastructure.
The study employed nine conditioning factors in its analysis, including elevation, slope, permafrost zonation index, proximity to glaciers and glacial lakes, distance to rivers, distance to lineaments, lithology, and geomorphology. The elevation within the study area varies dramatically, ranging from approximately 6,870 feet near Manali to over 21,000 feet in Ladakh. Temperatures fluctuate extremely, from around 35 degrees Celsius in the summer to below minus 28 degrees Celsius in the winter. These harsh environmental conditions significantly increase the region’s susceptibility to cryospheric hazards that could imperil transportation infrastructure.
The Leh-Manali corridor is recognized as one of the most strategically vital transportation routes in the Indian Himalayas. The existing Leh-Manali Highway currently serves as a crucial link connecting Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh, playing a pivotal role in military logistics, supporting local livelihoods, and facilitating trade and tourism. However, this corridor traverses challenging terrain, including glacierized areas, permafrost-affected slopes, steep valleys, and high mountain passes, making it inherently vulnerable to cryospheric hazards.
In response to escalating transportation demands and the strategic importance of the region, the Indian government has proposed the Bilaspur–Manali–Leh railway project. This ambitious undertaking is anticipated to become one of the world’s highest railway systems. The planned line spans approximately 275 kilometers, with a significant portion comprising 62 tunnels extending over 154 kilometers, while 121 kilometers will be open sections. The alignment is set to pass through several significant locations such as Sissu, Keylong, Darcha, Sarchu, Pang, Tanglang La Pass, Upshi, and Leh, with a total of 15 railway stations proposed along its course.
While the railway project promises to significantly enhance regional connectivity and foster socio-economic development, its long-term stability could be compromised by cryosphere-related hazards and climate-induced landscape changes, according to the researchers. The Himalayan region, often referred to as the “Third Pole,” holds the largest accumulation of ice and snow outside the polar regions and is instrumental in sustaining water resources and ecosystems across Asia. However, the study notes that rapid climate warming is accelerating glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and changes in snow cover and glacial lake expansion. This escalating trend increases the frequency of cryospheric hazards like GLOFs, avalanches, debris flows, and thaw-induced slope failures, posing substantial threats to mountain communities, ecosystems, and critical infrastructure, particularly transportation networks situated in high-altitude environments.
Tahir Rihat (also known as Tahir Bilal) is an independent journalist, activist, and digital media professional from the Chenab Valley of Jammu and Kashmir, India. He is best known for his work as the Online Editor at The Chenab Times.
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