Northwest India is bracing for a prolonged period of inclement weather, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing a yellow alert for thunderstorms and strong winds across parts of Punjab and Haryana. This wet spell is anticipated to continue for four days, from October 12 to October 15, bringing light to moderate rainfall to several areas.
The IMD bulletin, released on October 11, indicated that Punjab and Haryana can expect rainfall at a few places between October 12 and 14, with the possibility of it extending to many places on October 15. Accompanying these showers, isolated locations may experience thunderstorms and lightning, coupled with gusty winds reaching speeds of 40 to 50 kilometers per hour, a situation expected to persist until October 15. Following this period, dry weather conditions are forecast to return.
Information reaching Tahir Rihat suggests that the current weather pattern is attributed to a confluence of meteorological factors. These include an upper air cyclonic circulation hovering over Haryana, a trough extending from central Pakistan to northern Madhya Pradesh and passing through the Jammu region, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and western Uttar Pradesh, as well as a prevailing western disturbance over Himachal Pradesh. A satellite image released by the IMD on Sunday depicted dense cloud cover over most of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, northern Uttar Pradesh, and northeastern Rajasthan adjacent to Haryana. Partial cloud cover was also observed over eastern Punjab, Ladakh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
The impending rainfall comes after a period of deficient monsoon rainfall, with October so far also experiencing a significant deficit. Haryana has recorded an 84 percent rainfall deficit for October, while Punjab has seen a 47 percent deficit. From October 1 up to the morning of October 11, Haryana received only 0.8 mm of rain against a long period average (LPA) of 5.2 mm for the same duration. Punjab, during the same period, recorded 2.4 mm of rain against its LPA of 4.4 mm.
Despite the overall deficit, some districts in Punjab have experienced above-normal rainfall. Faridkot reported a surplus of 181 percent, followed by Hoshiarpur with 180 percent, Muktsar with 174 percent, and Pathankot with 54 percent. However, in all other districts of Punjab, rainfall has been below the LPA by at least 47 percent, with ten districts—Barnala, Fatehgarh Sahib, Fazilka, Kapurthala, Ludhiana, Mansa, Moga, Patiala, Sangrur, and Mohali—remaining completely dry during this period.
In Haryana, a similar pattern of uneven rainfall distribution is evident, with 17 districts not having received any rain in October thus far. Only two districts, Panchkula and Sirsa, recorded above-normal rainfall, with surpluses of 71 percent and 52 percent, respectively. Districts such as Ambala, Gurugram, and Yamunanagar have experienced shortfalls ranging from 65 percent to 99 percent, according to IMD data.
During the 24-hour period preceding the IMD’s bulletin, day temperatures in both states were recorded below normal, while night temperatures were above normal. Bathinda registered the highest maximum temperature in Punjab at 33.5 degrees Celsius and the lowest minimum temperature at 16.0 degrees Celsius. In Haryana, Narnaul recorded the highest maximum temperature at 34.0 degrees Celsius, and Bhiwani recorded the lowest minimum temperature at 20.0 degrees Celsius.
The IMD further extended its forecast to include Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, predicting isolated to scattered rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds potentially reaching speeds of 60 kmph on some days until October 17. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is possible in these northern states on October 14 and 15.
Tahir Rihat (also known as Tahir Bilal) is an independent journalist, activist, and digital media professional from the Chenab Valley of Jammu and Kashmir, India. He is best known for his work as the Online Editor at The Chenab Times.
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