KOLKATA, May 4 – Early trends in the West Bengal Assembly elections indicate a significant shift in the state’s political landscape, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) crossing the majority mark and leading in 185 seats. According to the Election Commission data, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, is currently trailing with 91 seats as counting progresses steadily.
The majority mark in the 294-member House is 148. The BJP’s early momentum suggests a possible breakthrough, while the ruling Trinamool Congress is working to close the gap in what appears to be a potentially game-changing electoral battle. The initial numbers point to a geographically split mandate, with the BJP gaining ground in border, tribal, and industrial regions, while the TMC maintains its hold in parts of Kolkata and select rural strongholds. As per information available with TahirRihat.com, counting for 293 Assembly seats commenced at 8 am, starting with postal ballots, followed by EVM votes.
The Election Commission has countermanded polls in the entire Falta constituency in South 24 Parganas district, citing “severe electoral offences and subversion of the democratic process during polling in a large number of polling stations”. The election is widely regarded as a referendum on Banerjee’s bid for a fourth consecutive term against an aggressive BJP, aiming to convert its 2021 gains into a decisive victory.
Even as the broader trend favors the BJP, Banerjee is leading in her Bhabanipur stronghold by 16,706 votes over BJP challenger Suvendu Adhikari after five rounds of counting, providing some relief to the TMC in a key constituency. The Bhabanipur contest has seen sharp swings throughout the morning, with Banerjee leading in the first round, trailing in the second, and regaining the advantage in the third, highlighting the volatility of early trends. In Nandigram, Suvendu Adhikari is ahead by over 3,135 votes against TMC’s Pabitra Kar after two rounds of counting. Beyond the headline numbers, the trends indicate a deeper churn in the state’s political landscape.
For a party that has held uninterrupted power since 2011, the current numbers suggest a possible unraveling of a carefully constructed political machine that thrived on centralized authority, welfare outreach, and relentless booth-level mobilization. The scale of the shift is reflected in emerging vote share patterns, with the BJP’s share rising to around 44.8 percent, a sharp jump from 2021, while the TMC’s dipped to nearly 41.7 percent, indicating erosion across segments that once formed its dependable base. Perhaps more telling is the churn in the 177 constituencies where voter deletions had exceeded previous victory margins a silent faultline that appears to have turned electoral.
The BJP is holding ground in all the seats it had won in this category in 2021 and making inroads into several of the 120 segments that the TMC had previously dominated, pointing to a deeper, more systemic shift rather than a transient swing. Initial trends from across the state show several TMC heavyweights trailing, triggering concern within the ruling camp. In Cooch Behar district’s Dinhata, minister Udayan Guha is trailing by 6,259 votes against BJP’s Ajay Ray after four of the 24 rounds of counting.
TMC’s Manas Ranjan Bhunia is trailing in Paschim Medinipur district’s Sabang constituency, where he has won seven elections earlier, with BJP’s Amal Kumar Panda ahead by 693 votes after the third round. In Kolkata, BJP’s Purnima Chakraborty is leading by 1,430 votes over TMC minister Shashi Panja, signaling early cracks in some urban pockets for the ruling party. In Monteswar, BJP’s Saikat Panja is ahead by 13,308 votes over TMC’s Siddiqullah Chowdhury, while in Asansol Dakshin, BJP leader Agnimitra Paul is leading by 18,812 votes. West Bengal Assembly Speaker Biman Banerjee is trailing by 1,448 votes in Baruipur Paschim constituency.
The BJP is also leading in a swath of constituencies, including Dinhata, Gosaba, Baghmundi, Bankura, Durgapur Purba, Binpur, Nayagram, Rajganj, and Bhagwangola, indicating traction across Junglemahal, north Bengal, and industrial belts. In contrast, the TMC retained leads in pockets such as Deganga, besides urban seats like Kasba, Ballygunge, Bhabanipur, and Entally, and rural belts including Singur, Raina, Jamalpur, Khandaghosh, Sitai, Malatipur and Mothabari. The CPI(M) is leading in Domkal in Murshidabad district, while the ISF is ahead in Minakhan in South 24 Parganas. Aam Janata Unnayan Party chief Humayun Kabir is leading in Nowda in Murshidabad over his nearest TMC rival after the first round, with a margin of 2,890 votes and several rounds remaining. Officials cautioned that trends could shift significantly as more rounds are counted.
Tahir Rihat (also known as Tahir Bilal) is an independent journalist, activist, and digital media professional from the Chenab Valley of Jammu and Kashmir, India. He is best known for his work as the Online Editor at The Chenab Times.
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